As the world continues to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, the global trading system is crippling. By mid-February, the virus had already dented global trade by US$23 trillion, as reported by The Economist in March. For economies that are well plugged into the global value chains like ASEAN, this news is indeed portentous. In 2018, around 32% of ASEAN’s trade were in raw materials and intermediate goods, which were all transacted within the complex networks of supply chains. It’s no wonder that when the pandemic disrupted those chains, the open economies of ASEAN were not spared either.

Given the importance of trade in ASEAN, the post-pandemic scenario will definitely still require more, not less, trade. For many years supply chain trade and market integration has defined the region, from ASEAN Free Trade Area in 1993 to the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015. Globalization and economic interdependence have intensified it, as the region depended on elaborate production networks to do trade. And it has served the region well, supporting its economic growth over the years. Hence, there’s no reason this will change after the pandemic. But what will change perhaps is a re-thinking of how supply chains should be organized.

As the pandemic took its toll on supply chains, re-thinking value chains seems to be most logical thing to do in order to restart international production again. It can be done in many ways. First is by building stronger and smarter supply networks that can withstand future pandemics or natural disasters. As well as by diversifying sources of supply chains and avoiding reliance on a single supplier. And even more, by balancing between resilience and efficiency in production, where countries can decide when it’s best to undertake production domestically, and when offshoring is optimal to do.

ASEAN has a lot of stake to do the same, given its openness to trade. But the lessons of this pandemic are clear that global trade is no longer business as usual. Supply chains have to emerge strong – and resilient. But to achieve that, more is definitely needed than less.

First, ASEAN should think more seriously about leveraging on the powerful 4IR technologies such as AI, big data and blockchain in the value chain network. Technologies can make supply chains more dynamic since they smooth flows across production functions and optimize processes along the supply chains. For example, according to McKinsey Institute, technologies can be used to map and monitor supply networks. Mapping can help companies identify which suppliers, sites, parts and products are at risk, thus allowing them to immediately take appropriate action in case of potential disruption. Moreover, since the supply chain is a big network (comprising of suppliers, customers, competitors and government officials), this mapping can help address one critical element of the network, which is access to information by different players in a value chain. Again successful mapping requires data and information sharing among parties in a supply chain, and this is where new technologies like big data and blockchain can provide. Technologies allow resilience to be permanently embedded into supply network.

Of course, linking supply chain resilience and technologies does not come easy. Countries need to invest on infrastructure, regulations and best practices, and even education and skills. Thus, there’s a need for ASEAN to re-organize its digital agenda quickly, perhaps by having a collective approach towards embracing the Fourth Industrial Revolution with clear strategies and actions.

Second, ASEAN needs to promote more digital trade and e-commerce in the region than ever. As is now well known, e-commerce platforms offer huge opportunities in terms of enabling fast and secure movement of goods and services around the world. During lockdowns and quarantines, online transactions have helped some businesses to operate and households to still access goods and services. In fact, the same platforms can also help the economic recovery and job creation after the pandemic.

But even without using this pandemic as an excuse to go digital, the huge potentials of digital trade cannot be ignored. For example, by 2025, it is projected that e-commerce in ASEAN will reach US$102 billion, accounting for 40% of the region’s internet economy (US$240 billion). Together with China and India, ASEAN could be part of the world’s epicenter of e-commerce by 2023, taking over 40% of the world’s e-commerce. One important aspect of digital trade is digital trade in services which are among the most dynamic sectors in ASEAN at the moment.

Thus, it’s about time for ASEAN to intensify e-commerce. One huge step is the full ratification of ASEAN Agreement on e-Commerce signed in 2018 in order to set the rules that will advance digital trade in the region. As well as key actions on paperless trading, digital payments, and cybersecurity. The implementation of the digital integration action plan should also be strengthened to benefit the small businesses hardest hit sectors by the pandemic. In addition, there’s a need to continue addressing key policy priorities on digital trade such as regulatory framework, digital infrastructure, logistics, and data connectivity.

Finally, given the complex nature of value chains trade, where suppliers and players are involved across many countries in an elaborate network, supply chain resilience requires more cooperation now than ever. The pandemic has exposed some perils of interdependence that the world has seen for so many years. Yet it’s the same force that underpinned the world’s progress. To be sure, the post-pandemic world still requires more, and not less, trade cooperation among ASEAN countries to recover. Among many things, it means restoring the vital trade and investment links that have been temporarily disrupted by the pandemic.

In terms of priorities, ensuring a robust trade facilitation mechanism is key. As such on-going initiatives on non-tariff measures, customs transit, transport and logistics, and self-certification scheme need to be fully implemented. Take the ASEAN Single Window for example – a mechanism for traders to exchange documents online that has gone live for all countries since January. The ASEAN Single Window should be fully optimized with more documents being added into the platform, as well as possible extension/tie-up with other single windows operated by ASEAN trading partners. In addition, mechanisms to engage the private sector (e.g., ASSIST and e-Platform) are integral.

Policy and regulatory cooperation is also critical. Since trade issues are likely to dominate the post-pandemic recovery, requiring more policy decisions and discussions, it’s important to adhere to rules-based trading system. More robust mechanisms for trade and investment policy review, data sharing, cross-sectoral coordination, and monitoring of AEC initiatives and their implementation are therefore needed.

In a post-pandemic world, the global trading system will survive, for sure. As ASEAN economies prepare for a recovery, a new normal of managing international production may prevail, as well as perhaps new rules and policies to govern cross-border trade. In every crisis there’s opportunity for change. But whatever changes this pandemic can bring, economic isolation is definitely not part of this new normal.